Thursday, February 11, 2010

Market outlook for 11/02/10

A day after regaining the psychological 16,000 mark, the barometer index BSE Sensex fell below that level yesterday, on waning risk appetite among foreign investors. Intraday volatility on the bourses was immense. Banking, capital goods, FMCG, healthcare and power stocks fell. The market breadth turned negative in contrast to a strong breadth earlier in the day.
Foreign funds have pressed heavy sales of Indian stocks in early 2010. As per data from the stock exchanges, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold stocks worth a net Rs 11141.63 crore in calendar 2010 so far (till Tuesday, 9 February 2010). In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have bought equities worth a net Rs 14687.43 crore this year so far.
Coming back to today's trade and the market was volatile. The market pared gains soon after a firm start triggered by higher Asian stocks. The market slipped into the red in early trade as US index futures fell. The market cut losses in morning trade. It moved between the positive and negative terrain after recovering sharply from the intraday lows in mid-morning trade. The market once again cut losses after weakening in early afternoon trade. The market regained positive zone in afternoon trade. It reversed gains to hit fresh intraday low in late trade.
  • Nifty closed the day at 4,757.20 down by 35.45 points. Nifty February Future closed at 4,755.1 discount of 2.1 points.
  • FII bought in index futures and stock futures but sold in cash and index options (Net bought 832.7 Crore)
  • US markets closed flat to negative.
  • Global cues are flat to Positive.
  • SGX nifty is Positive as of now.
  • Most Active February Nifty Call Option: 4800 and 4900.
  • Most Active February Nifty Put Options: 4800 and 4700.
Over all view
So 4825 worked brilliantly (high made 4823.5) and still holds the good for bears. The corrective up looks to be weakening as long 4825 is breaking on the upside. Though as discussed on yesterday's post that a 5 wave impulse is in course in the smaller time frame on the upside, so that's the last hope for the bulls to make this corrective up move a bit more lengthier.
Supports: Immediate support is 4745. As told previously, as the very short term chart exhibiting impulse upward movements, so 4715-4690 is the most critical place to sustain this upside rally. Below that 4640 can come in no time. Further break down can bring 4520-4440 positionally.
Resistances: 4765-75. Above that it can witness some recovery upto 4795-4805. Main hurdle still exist at 4825. Above which 4860/75 can come very easily. More strength can bring 4915-4935-4955/60.

NIFTY Technical
Current Spot: 4757.20
Pivot: 4775.70
3DEMA: 4769
7DEMA: 4797
20DEMA: 4916
RSI (7 days): 33.11
Supports: 4730 - 4702
Resistance: 4803 - 4849

Target Nifty
Buy Nifty above 4775 - 4801 - 4853 - 4884 SL - 4769
Sell Nifty below 4744 - 4722 - 4609 - 4638 SL - 4774

Stock Ideas for the Day
Reliance Industries: Buy above 989 for targets of 996, 1008, 1016 SL of 988
Reliance Industries: Sell below 983 for targets of 977, 969, 957 SL of 989
HMT: Buy above 102 for targets of 107, 113 SL of 98.8 (2-3 Days)
Mirza Intl.: Buy above 16.5 for targets of 17.2, 18 SL of 16.2 (Strictly Day Trade)
Appolo Tyre: Buy above 57.8 for targets of 60, 63 SL of 56.2

Positional Call
Astral Poytechnik: Buy above 181 for targets of 208 SL of 168 (One Month)
Neyveli Lignite: Buy above 152.50 for targets of 168 SL of 145 (One Week)

My Advice: Never Trade Blindly

Use strict STOP LOSS in each and every trade in this kind of volatile market and Trade at your own risk.

Thanks and Regards

S&P Wealth Creators

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