Market outlook for 15/04/10

The key benchmark indices ended the volatile session on negative note on the back of weak global market. The Asian market opened the session on negative note as investors questioned whether the global economic recovery can support further gains to the year long equities rally and eye US first quarter GDP and corporate earnings, scheduled to be announced today. Following the Asian market, the European market also opened the session on negative note. Back home the market sentiment was further hampered by the weaker start of the stock futures on Wall Street. However the market gained momentum in the final hours of the trading as investors showed buying interest ahead of the close of the market tomorrow on account of Ambedkar Jayanti. Meanwhile, the IT index outperformed the broader market to close with strong gains of 3.09 per cent following the better than expected quarterly numbers by IT bell weather Infosys Technologies Ltd. Selling interest emerged across the counters with Auto stocks leading the sectoral indices followed by Bankex, Oil&Gas and CD. While IT, Teck and Power were the only three stocks which ended on the positive note. Nifty closed the day at 5322.95 down by 16.75 points. Nifty April future closed at 5330.3, premium of 7.35 points.

• FII bought in Cash (Net buy 128.52 Crore)
• FII bought in index options and stock futures but sold in index futures (Net buy 185.60 Crore)
• DII bought in Cash (Net buy 252.87 Crore)
• US market ended flat.
• Global cues are flat to Positive.
• SGX nifty is Negative as of now.
• Most Active April Nifty Call Option: 5400 and 5300.
• Most Active March Nifty Put Options: 5200 and 5300.
• Put Call ratio stands at 1.01
• Advance Decline for the day was 548:736
• India VIX at 20.14 up by 0.09 points

Over all view
As indicated in previous note market reacted in same manner with negative bias. On Tuesday Nifty has again formed “Small Black Candle” on daily chart suggests uncertainty in market. Daily momentum indicators are showing more weakness as Nifty is trading near its support zone. Near term scenario slightly favors bear with strong support placed at 5290 levels and strong resistance placed in the range of 5380 - 5400 levels. Still there is word of cautious due to uncertainty in market.

NIFTY Technical
Current Spot: 5322.95
Pivot: 5326
3DEMA: 5333
7DEMA: 5330
20DEMA: 5268
RSI (7 days): 54.53
Parabolic SAR: 5279
Supports: 5299 - 5275
Resistance: 5350 - 5376

Target Nifty
Buy Nifty above 5334 - 5340 - 5353 - 5370 SL - 5323
Sell Nifty below 5317 - 5311 - 5298 - 5285 SL - 5328

Option Open Interest

Yesterday there was a huge Open Interest buildup (4 lacs) in 5300CE and 5400CE, whereas 5300 and 5400PE shed huge Open Interest indicating that Option writers are playing for 5290 - 5380 range for time being.

Option & Futures Call
Buy Nifty 5300PE above 70.3 for targets of 75.7, 85.2 SL - 64.3
Buy Nifty 5400CE above 44.8 for targets of 50.1, 57.4 SL - 41.1

Swing Trade

KPIT Cummins (126)
Stock has given three month old downward sloping trend line breakout with long white candle and strong volume breakout on daily chart. Daily momentum indicators are featuring in bullish zone. More over on western pattern side stock has given rounding Bottom breakout, which is a bullish continuation pattern. Looking at all above technical parameters traders with moderate risk appetite can consider Buy above 127 with tight stop loss of 123.50 for a Target of 134.

Tata Chemicals (334)
Stock has given strong three and half month old downward sloping trend line breakout on daily chart with long white candle on Tuesday’s close. Daily momentum indicators are hovering in bullish zone; especially MACDh has given strong buy signal on daily chart. Short term moving averages are showing upward movement with increasing gap on upper side. Looking at all above technical parameters traders with moderate risk appetite can consider Buy above 336 with tight stop loss of 330 for a Target of 347-350.

Stock Ideas for the Day
Reliance Industries: Buy above 1128 for targets of 1132, 1142, 1153 SL of 1119
Reliance Industries: Sell below 1115 for targets of 1111, 1102, 1091 SL of 1125

Positional Call
Axis Bank (1157.60): Sell below 1153 for target of 1125 SL 1166
Bata India (259): Buy above 260 for target of 273 SL 254
NALCO (415.65): Buy above 417.50 for target of 428 SL 411
HCL Tech (356.75): Buy above 359 for target of 372 SL 351
Dwarkesh Sugar (81.10): Buy above 82 for target of 87.50 SL 79
Hexaware Tech (72.30): Buy above 72.30 for target of 78.50 SL 69

Use strict STOP LOSS in each and every trade in this kind of volatile market and Trade at your own risk.

Thanks and Regards

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