Sunday, March 14, 2010

Market outlook for 15/03/10

The domestic market today closed on a flat note as volatility persists across the major indices at the final hours. The buying interest emerged in the final hour session due to the positive industrial output data. However, the market remains lackluster during the session on concerns of a possible interest rate hike by the Country's Central bank following the firm industrial output data as well as concerns of inflationary pressure from China. The benchmark indices today opened with positive note and remained volatile tracking mixed cues from Asian markets. The market however continued its volatility till the mid session ahead of the outcome of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for January 2010. The Asian stocks were traded in mix despite a firm closing of the U.S. markets during the overnight trade. The weakness in Dollar and in-line expected jobless claims data helped broad based buying led by banking stocks. Further the sentiments get boosted on speculation of more easing in monetary policy by Bank of Japan. In U.S the markets closed higher marking its 9th gain in the previous 10 sessions. Huge volatility was witnessed during the trading session as after the firm opening to touch 1-1/2 month highs, the stocks pared gains soon and again regained strength afterwards. However, soon after the outcome of the IIP data, the market once again trimmed gains following the investors' concern of rate hike. The market moved between positive and negative zone in early afternoon trade. The market cut losses after hitting a fresh intraday low in afternoon trade and closed the day with marginal gain.
Nifty closed the day at 5137 up by 3.60 points. Nifty February Future closed at 5148.10, premium of 11.1 points.
  • FII bought in index options, and cash but sold in stock futures and index futures (Net buy 796.2 Crore)
  • US market ended Flat.
  • Global cues are flat to Positive.
  • SGX nifty is Negative as of now.
  • Most Active March Nifty Call Option: 5100 and 5200.
  • Most Active February Nifty Put Options: 5000 and 5100.
Over all view
Last Week Nifty remains in consolidation zone after making “Three White Soldier” in preceding week. Important point to note on weekly chart is that open and low was same, which suggests sentiments in near term looks well. Detailed study of Weekly chart suggests that Nifty is trading in a horizontal price channel Pattern, upper zone ends at 5310 level, crossing which provide real Bull Run in the market. Daily RSI is suggesting strength on chart where as MACDh is showing some sign of weakness, over all technical scenario favors bull as long as nifty is trading above 5050 level.

NIFTY Technical
Current Spot: 5137.00
Pivot: 5139.05
3DEMA: 5129
7DEMA: 5099
20DEMA: 5016
RSI (7 days): 78.31
Supports: 5120 - 5103
Resistance: 5156 - 5175

Option Open Interest

Target Nifty
Buy Nifty above 5150 - 5164 - 5187 - 5207 SL - 5144
Sell Nifty below 5137 - 5127 - 5106 - 5084 SL - 5149

Option & Futures Call
Buy Nifty 5100PE at 48.5 for targets of 53, 66 SL of 45 (1-2 Days)

Swing Trade

Chennai Petro
Stock was consolidating in the range of 238-249 from late February, on Friday stock has formed “Long White Candle” bullish candlestick pattern with strong volume, which suggest up move is likely to sustain. Daily RSI, Stochastic has given positive cross over to signal line and MACDh has given strong buy signal. Weekly RSI also featuring in bullish zone. Looking at all above technical parameters trader with moderate risk appetite can consider Buy above Rs256. with tight stop loss of Rs.249 for a Target of Rs.270.

Stock Ideas for the Day
Reliance Industries: Buy above 1028 for targets of 1031, 1039, 1048 SL of 1020
Reliance Industries: Sell below 1016 for targets of 1011, 1006, 996 SL of 1027
Sasken: Buy above 184 for targets of 187, 192 SL of 180
Cairn: Buy above 277 for targets of 280, 285 SL of 273

Positional Call
IndraMedico: Buy above 45.5 for targets of 48.5 SL of 44.8 (One Week)
Dhampur Sugar: Buy above 80 for targets of 85 SL of 78 (One Week)

The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule - WB

Use strict STOP LOSS in each and every trade in this kind of volatile market and Trade at your own risk.

Thanks and Regards

S&P Wealth Creators

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