Weekly Outlook Indian Stock Market (25 - 29 Jan)

Weekly Technical’s
Open: 5253.65
High: 5292.50
Low: 4954.85
Close: 5036.00
Weekly Change: -216.20
Weekly RSI: 57.36
Weekly Pivot: 5094
Support: 4896 - 4757
Resistance: 5234 - 5432

TECHNICAL CUES

• Nifty made high and low of 5094 and 4955 on last trading day.
• Trading above 5050, up move will be seen up to 5070, 5080, 5090.
• Below 5020, correction will be seen up to 4990, 4970, 4950.
• Last swing top is at 5292.

In the medium term:
Nifty is in corrective down move (from 21st Jan.) with targets of 5010 (achieved), 4950 (achieved), 4890. The down move will ‘terminate’ above 5311.
In the short term:
Nifty is now in downtrend (from 21st Jan.) with targets of 5090 (already achieved), 5020 (achieved). The down trend will ‘terminate’ above 5292.

DERIVATIVE CUES

• Nifty January future discount increased to 16 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 23 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 3.27cr which is very dangerous suggest high volatility in next three days)
• Nifty calls added 61 lacs and puts added 12 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.04.
• 5000 puts had open interest of 58 lacs (-10%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 41 lacs (+23%), so 5000 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 24.85, increased by 5.7% suggests instability. (Bearish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 8/41. (Bearish)

Thanks and Regards

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